2022 Oscar Predictions

For the last few years I have built and published on NIHF.com the results of an aggregate model I made for predicting the winners of each Academy Award. This year I am a little late to updating my model and the site has not been covering the Awards Season as dedicatedly as in past years (In all honestly I am probably significantly responsible for that). Anyways I have updated my model at this the 11th hour before the ceremony and still want to share the model results with the world, so in a change of pace I will publish on my personal blog alone. If you are guessing against any friends or co-workers then I encourage using my model. It has a 76% success rate across all categories, which is very good! On this page I will share each nominee and their percent likelihood of winning. Anyways here are the model results! Good luck!

Best Picture

CODA
49.55%
The Power of the Dog
39.04%
Belfast
3.60%
Drive My Car
2.10%
Dune
2.10%
Licorice Pizza
1.80%
All Other Nominees
1.80%

Best Actress-In a Leading Role

Jessica Chastain
64.56%
Penélope Cruz
16.22%
Kristen Stewart
7.21%
Nicole Kidman
6.31%
Olivia Colman
5.71%

Best Actor-In a Leading Role

Will Smith
81.68%
Benedict Cumberbatch
14.11%
Andrew Garfield
3.00%
Denzel Washington
0.90%
Javier Bardem
0.30%

Actress-In Supporting Role

Ariana DeBose
80.80%
Kirsten Dunst
9.91%
Aunjanue Ellis
5.88%
Judi Dench
2.79%
Jessie Buckley
0.62%

Actor-In Supporting Role

Troy Kotsur
78.33%
Kodi Smit-McPhee
18.89%
Jesse Plemons
1.24%
Ciaran Hinds
1.24%
J.K. Simmons
0.31%

Directing

Jane Campion
85.67%
Steven Spielberg
6.23%
Kenneth Branagh
3.74%
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
2.49%
Paul Thomas Anderson
1.87%

Writing-Adapted Screenplay

CODA
50.75%
The Power of the Dog
36.94%
The Lost Daughter
5.97%
Drive My Car
4.85%
Dune
1.49%

Writing-Original Screenplay

Belfast
47.94%
Licorice Pizza
34.83%
Don’t Look Up
13.86%
The Worst Person In The World
2.62%
King Richard
0.75%

International Film

Drive My Car
81.78%
The Worst Person in the World
11.86%
Flee
5.08%
The Hand of God
0.85%
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
0.42%

Documentary Feature

Summer of Soul
78.81%
Flee
17.80%
Attica
2.54%
Ascension
0.42%
Writing with Fire
0.42%

Animated Feature Film

Encanto
77.34%
The Mitchells vs the Machines
14.84%
Flee
5.08%
Luca
2.34%
Raya and the Last Dragon
0.39%

Production Design

Dune
66.83%
Nightmare Alley
26.13%
The Tragedy of Macbeth
4.02%
West Side Story
2.51%
The Power of the Dog
0.50%

Film Editing

Dune
51.30%
tick, tick... BOOM!
18.13%
The Power of the Dog
18.13%
King Richard
10.88%
Don't Look Up
1.55%

Cinematography

Dune
56.22%
The Power of the Dog
34.56%
West Side Story
5.53%
The Tragedy of Macbeth
2.76%
Nightmare Alley
0.92%

Visual Effects

Dune
83.41%
Spider-Man: No Way Home
5.69%
Free Guy
5.21%
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
2.84%
No Time To Die
2.84%

Costume Design

Cruella
82.35%
Dune
14.22%
West Side Story
2.45%
Nightmare Alley
0.49%
Cyrano
0.49%

Sound

Dune
81.31%
West Side Story
9.60%
No Time To Die
8.08%
The Power of the Dog
1.01%
Belfast
0.00%

Music-Original Song

No Time To Die
60.76%
Dos Oruguitas
32.91%
Be Alive
4.64%
Down to Joy
0.84%
Somehow You Do
0.84%

Music-Original Score

Dune
76.04%
The Power of the Dog
16.13%
Encanto
5.99%
Don’t Look Up
0.92%
Parallel Mothers
0.92%

Makeup and Hairstyling

The Eyes of Tammy Faye
78.42%
Cruella
9.47%
Dune
9.47%
House of Gucci
1.58%
Coming 2 America
1.05%

Short Film-Live Action

The Long Goodbye
63.33%
Please Hold
16.11%
Ala Kachuu: Take and Run
11.67%
On My Mind
5.56%
The Dress
3.33%

Short Film-Animated

Robin Robin
75.00%
The Windshield Wiper
11.05%
Bestia
5.81%
Boxballet
5.23%
Affairs of the Art
2.91%

Documentary Short Subject

The Queen of Basketball
49.42%
Audible
37.79%
Lead Me Home
7.56%
Three Songs for Benazir
4.65%
When We Were Bullies
0.58%

Covid-19 Farm - Year 1 Days 2 & 3 of Spring

This is the stream that I did during my lunch break today of Stardew Valley Day 2. Rona spent the day chopping wood and introducing herself to more residents of Pelican Town. Willy, he local fisherman seems to have taken a particular liking to Rona, he reminded Rona a bit of her grandfather... the one who did not leave her a farm in his will. The reason Rona spent so much time and energy chopping wood was in an attempt to get into the good graces of the Valley's villagers by repairing the bridge down by the beach. Elliot who lives by the beach thanked her, so she is optimistic her effort will pay off.



On a rainy day 3 of Spring Rona decided to try her luck at casting a line. She made a hike up into the mountains and caught about 10 fish before taking her haul home and heading to the beach to fish some more. There she found what looked to be a fossilized sea creature. She wasn't sure what it was and hopes she can find someone in Pelican Town that can tell her about it!



Tomorrow Rona will likely begin planning her next plot of crops now that she has some money for more seeds!

Covid-19 Farm - Year 1 Day 1 of Spring

I have begun playing a Stardew Valley file to go along with my Coronavirus quarantine. Once I am caught up with real life quarantine days I will play one day for each day of the stay at home order and we will see how far I can get. In addition I will be aiming to complete the community center in year one of this play through. I made some pretty big mistakes in my playing today but oh well. Here is the live stream from day 1 (my commentary volume is way too low I will fix that before tomorrow's stream), followed by my notes from playing.


Rona is my farmer. She has never felt she belonged which may be due to her brilliantly blue skin. She is hoping she will be able to find a place for herself among the people of Pelican Town so that she can finally have a place that feels like home. On her first day in the Valley she planted 15 Parsnip seeds, 5 Green Bean Starters, and 8 Mixed seeds she found. She also chopped wood, foraged for spring onions and other items for energy, and met each resident of Pelican Town she ran into, except for Haley who was too involved with her photography to notice her.

Tomorrow Rona thinks she will chop more wood so that she has more building supplies and she will attempt to meet more of the Valley Residents. She also still has not yet explored the northern regions of the valley. (Also my in game volume was a little loud so I will be turning that down a bit....)

Day 186 - Finished Emerald and on to Crystal

Not the LEGO content I am referring to,
but a blending of those two things...
Credit: Bricksafe.com

I finished Pokémon Emerald last week on Friday and now I have moved on to the superior (in my opinion) Pokémon Crystal. In Crystal Susan, my protagonist, started with Anthony the Chikorita, and at this point he is a Meganium and is joined by Cady the Phanpy, Muscle the Machamp (from a Goldenrod in-game trade), Joslyn the Pikachu (from the Odd Egg), and Rochester the Staryu. Susan has 7 badges and is currently storming the taken over Radio Tower!

I have not updated the Emerald page or made a page for Crystal yet, but I should have time to do that this weekend. As suggested in my previous post, due to Covid-19 quarantine I have more time for projects right now so I am branching out this site and its auxiliary locations such as the YouTube channel with additional and variable content. This will include a daily Stardew Valley live stream for the duration of my quarantine, as well as some LEGO content inspired by LEGO Masters on FOX. I hope you will enjoy and check it out!

Day 172 - Clearly I Have Not Been Posting

As you know he Coronavirus has kind of made the world a little hectic for a lot of people. Alissa and I have been ok. We had a wonderful vacation in Texas visiting my eldest sister. She took us to the rodeo which was very cool, honestly one of the coolest things I have ever been to. Otherwise we have just been continuing on with the normal. I am still looking for a new job, but I also have not yet been terminated at my current job. I have been working from home, which is not my personal ideal but is manageable. I beg of anyone reading this if you have know of a job opportunity that I might be a fit for to please reach out and let me know.

As far as Pokémon goes... I am still doing my challenge, but I am behind and I have not been posting. I should have finished Pokémon Emerald two weeks, but I am stuck on the post-game captures and training needs. In reality I should have finished another game in those two weeks but given everything going on there is no way I would've finished that game (Colosseum, which was one of my stretch goal games anyways). I might come back to it, but after I finish Emerald this weekend I will move straight to Crystal. Anyways, I am behind, but still going even if super casually for now.

I might catch up with Pokémon later, but right now I am choosing not to worry about it. My life is unfortunately stressful right now and I have not had the time or energy for a lot of the things I want to spend time with lately. So Pokémon might be he most responsible thing for me to "sacrifice" but as far as I keep playing I will keep posting updates and occasional other things on this site. I might expand beyond purely Pokémon content as well, just to keep things casual and relaxed I will focus on things that bring me joy. I hope you can understand.

Day 152 - Game Over

The weather institute was saved thanks to another instance of Martha's heroics! She rode away and congratulated herself by singing her song. That is she sang her song until she ran into Brendan. He heard her song and was not happy about it. He told her he was furious and would defeat her once and for all. Martha tried to cry her way out of it, but to no avail. So they clashed in a Pokémon battle! Martha won like she always had, but it did not make her feel any better she was humiliated. "I'm done with you!" Brendan declared, as he expressed his intentions of going home to help his father with research and to strengthen their familial bond. It was game over for Martha's prank, now what did she have to work for?

Thank you sole regular reader. I am grateful for your dedicated patronage here on my blog.

Day 150 - Happy Pokémon Day!

Happy Pokémon Day! No Martha updates today, but I have the continuation of her story in mind for either tomorrow or Saturday. Today in celebration of Pokémon Day I am going to go through and name a few of my Pokémon favorites! The family favorites must have the type as their final form primary type for simplicity sake. These are my favoritesas of today, February 27 Pokémon Day 2020.

Favorite Pokémon...

• Region: Johto
• Generation: Gen IV
• Starter Trio: Torterra, Infernape, Empoleon
• Game Set: Black, White, Black 2, & White 2
• Box Legendaries: Solgaleo & Lunala 
• Eeveelution: Jolteon
• Baby Pokémon: Elekid (although Toxel is growing on me)
• Pikachu Clone: Pachirisu
• Fossil Pokémon: Armaldo
• Mythical: Celebi
• Alolan Variant: Graveler
• Galarian Variant: Darmanitan
• Pseudo Legendary: Metagross (though this one changes regularly)
• Normal Type Family: Whismur, Loudred, & Exploud
• Fighting Type Family: Clobbopus & Grapploct (new favorites but Riolu & Lucario might win out in the long run)
• Flying Type Family: Noibat & Noivern
• Poison Type Family: Gulpin & Swalot
• Ground Type Family: Phanpy & Donphan
• Rock Type Family: Roggenrola, Boldore, & Gigalith
• Bug Type Family: Cutifly & Ribombee (I flip to Heracross for a week or so every couple months)
• Ghost Type Family: Litwick, Lampent, & Chandelure
• Steel Type Family: Skarmory
• Fire Type Family: Sizzlipede & Centiskorch
• Water Type Family: Wooper & Quagsire (Wooper could hold this spot all alone!)
• Grass Type Family: Chikorita, Bayleef, & Meganium
• Electric Type Family: Mareep, Flaafy, & Ampharos
• Psychic Type Family: Solosis, Duosion, & Reuniclus
• Ice Type Family: Snorunt, Glalie, & Froslass (my only branched family)
• Dragon Type Family: Goomy, Sliggoo, & Goodra (this changes a bunch too)
• Dark Type Family: Purrloin & Liepard
• Fairy Type Family: Flabébé, Floette, & Florges
• Type: Electric probably...
• Poké Ball: Premier Ball
• Champion: Cynthia (because I'm basic)
• Professor: Kukui?

How about you? Who and what are your favorites?