2022 Oscar Predictions

For the last few years I have built and published on NIHF.com the results of an aggregate model I made for predicting the winners of each Academy Award. This year I am a little late to updating my model and the site has not been covering the Awards Season as dedicatedly as in past years (In all honestly I am probably significantly responsible for that). Anyways I have updated my model at this the 11th hour before the ceremony and still want to share the model results with the world, so in a change of pace I will publish on my personal blog alone. If you are guessing against any friends or co-workers then I encourage using my model. It has a 76% success rate across all categories, which is very good! On this page I will share each nominee and their percent likelihood of winning. Anyways here are the model results! Good luck!

Best Picture

CODA
49.55%
The Power of the Dog
39.04%
Belfast
3.60%
Drive My Car
2.10%
Dune
2.10%
Licorice Pizza
1.80%
All Other Nominees
1.80%

Best Actress-In a Leading Role

Jessica Chastain
64.56%
Penélope Cruz
16.22%
Kristen Stewart
7.21%
Nicole Kidman
6.31%
Olivia Colman
5.71%

Best Actor-In a Leading Role

Will Smith
81.68%
Benedict Cumberbatch
14.11%
Andrew Garfield
3.00%
Denzel Washington
0.90%
Javier Bardem
0.30%

Actress-In Supporting Role

Ariana DeBose
80.80%
Kirsten Dunst
9.91%
Aunjanue Ellis
5.88%
Judi Dench
2.79%
Jessie Buckley
0.62%

Actor-In Supporting Role

Troy Kotsur
78.33%
Kodi Smit-McPhee
18.89%
Jesse Plemons
1.24%
Ciaran Hinds
1.24%
J.K. Simmons
0.31%

Directing

Jane Campion
85.67%
Steven Spielberg
6.23%
Kenneth Branagh
3.74%
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
2.49%
Paul Thomas Anderson
1.87%

Writing-Adapted Screenplay

CODA
50.75%
The Power of the Dog
36.94%
The Lost Daughter
5.97%
Drive My Car
4.85%
Dune
1.49%

Writing-Original Screenplay

Belfast
47.94%
Licorice Pizza
34.83%
Don’t Look Up
13.86%
The Worst Person In The World
2.62%
King Richard
0.75%

International Film

Drive My Car
81.78%
The Worst Person in the World
11.86%
Flee
5.08%
The Hand of God
0.85%
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
0.42%

Documentary Feature

Summer of Soul
78.81%
Flee
17.80%
Attica
2.54%
Ascension
0.42%
Writing with Fire
0.42%

Animated Feature Film

Encanto
77.34%
The Mitchells vs the Machines
14.84%
Flee
5.08%
Luca
2.34%
Raya and the Last Dragon
0.39%

Production Design

Dune
66.83%
Nightmare Alley
26.13%
The Tragedy of Macbeth
4.02%
West Side Story
2.51%
The Power of the Dog
0.50%

Film Editing

Dune
51.30%
tick, tick... BOOM!
18.13%
The Power of the Dog
18.13%
King Richard
10.88%
Don't Look Up
1.55%

Cinematography

Dune
56.22%
The Power of the Dog
34.56%
West Side Story
5.53%
The Tragedy of Macbeth
2.76%
Nightmare Alley
0.92%

Visual Effects

Dune
83.41%
Spider-Man: No Way Home
5.69%
Free Guy
5.21%
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
2.84%
No Time To Die
2.84%

Costume Design

Cruella
82.35%
Dune
14.22%
West Side Story
2.45%
Nightmare Alley
0.49%
Cyrano
0.49%

Sound

Dune
81.31%
West Side Story
9.60%
No Time To Die
8.08%
The Power of the Dog
1.01%
Belfast
0.00%

Music-Original Song

No Time To Die
60.76%
Dos Oruguitas
32.91%
Be Alive
4.64%
Down to Joy
0.84%
Somehow You Do
0.84%

Music-Original Score

Dune
76.04%
The Power of the Dog
16.13%
Encanto
5.99%
Don’t Look Up
0.92%
Parallel Mothers
0.92%

Makeup and Hairstyling

The Eyes of Tammy Faye
78.42%
Cruella
9.47%
Dune
9.47%
House of Gucci
1.58%
Coming 2 America
1.05%

Short Film-Live Action

The Long Goodbye
63.33%
Please Hold
16.11%
Ala Kachuu: Take and Run
11.67%
On My Mind
5.56%
The Dress
3.33%

Short Film-Animated

Robin Robin
75.00%
The Windshield Wiper
11.05%
Bestia
5.81%
Boxballet
5.23%
Affairs of the Art
2.91%

Documentary Short Subject

The Queen of Basketball
49.42%
Audible
37.79%
Lead Me Home
7.56%
Three Songs for Benazir
4.65%
When We Were Bullies
0.58%