For the last few years I have built and published on NIHF.com the results of an aggregate model I made for predicting the winners of each Academy Award. This year I am a little late to updating my model and the site has not been covering the Awards Season as dedicatedly as in past years (In all honestly I am probably significantly responsible for that). Anyways I have updated my model at this the 11th hour before the ceremony and still want to share the model results with the world, so in a change of pace I will publish on my personal blog alone. If you are guessing against any friends or co-workers then I encourage using my model. It has a 76% success rate across all categories, which is very good! On this page I will share each nominee and their percent likelihood of winning. Anyways here are the model results! Good luck!
Best Picture
| CODA |
| 49.55% |
| The Power of the Dog |
| 39.04% |
| Belfast |
| 3.60% |
| Drive My Car |
| 2.10% |
| Dune |
| 2.10% |
| Licorice Pizza |
| 1.80% |
| All Other Nominees |
| 1.80% |
Best Actress-In a Leading Role
| Jessica Chastain |
| 64.56% |
| Penélope Cruz |
| 16.22% |
| Kristen Stewart |
| 7.21% |
| Nicole Kidman |
| 6.31% |
| Olivia Colman |
| 5.71% |
Best Actor-In a Leading Role
| Will Smith |
| 81.68% |
| Benedict Cumberbatch |
| 14.11% |
| Andrew Garfield |
| 3.00% |
| Denzel Washington |
| 0.90% |
| Javier Bardem |
| 0.30% |
Actress-In Supporting Role
| Ariana DeBose |
| 80.80% |
| Kirsten Dunst |
| 9.91% |
| Aunjanue Ellis |
| 5.88% |
| Judi Dench |
| 2.79% |
| Jessie Buckley |
| 0.62% |
Actor-In Supporting Role
| Troy Kotsur |
| 78.33% |
| Kodi Smit-McPhee |
| 18.89% |
| Jesse Plemons |
| 1.24% |
| Ciaran Hinds |
| 1.24% |
| J.K. Simmons |
| 0.31% |
Directing
| Jane Campion |
| 85.67% |
| Steven Spielberg |
| 6.23% |
| Kenneth Branagh |
| 3.74% |
| Ryusuke Hamaguchi |
| 2.49% |
| Paul Thomas Anderson |
| 1.87% |
Writing-Adapted Screenplay
| CODA |
| 50.75% |
| The Power of the Dog |
| 36.94% |
| The Lost Daughter |
| 5.97% |
| Drive My Car |
| 4.85% |
| Dune |
| 1.49% |
Writing-Original Screenplay
| Belfast |
| 47.94% |
| Licorice Pizza |
| 34.83% |
| Don’t Look Up |
| 13.86% |
| The Worst Person In The World |
| 2.62% |
| King Richard |
| 0.75% |
International Film
| Drive My Car |
| 81.78% |
| The Worst Person in the World |
| 11.86% |
| Flee |
| 5.08% |
| The Hand of God |
| 0.85% |
| Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom |
| 0.42% |
Documentary Feature
| Summer of Soul |
| 78.81% |
| Flee |
| 17.80% |
| Attica |
| 2.54% |
| Ascension |
| 0.42% |
| Writing with Fire |
| 0.42% |
Animated Feature Film
| Encanto |
| 77.34% |
| The Mitchells vs the Machines |
| 14.84% |
| Flee |
| 5.08% |
| Luca |
| 2.34% |
| Raya and the Last Dragon |
| 0.39% |
Production Design
| Dune |
| 66.83% |
| Nightmare Alley |
| 26.13% |
| The Tragedy of Macbeth |
| 4.02% |
| West Side Story |
| 2.51% |
| The Power of the Dog |
| 0.50% |
Film Editing
| Dune |
| 51.30% |
| tick, tick... BOOM! |
| 18.13% |
| The Power of the Dog |
| 18.13% |
| King Richard |
| 10.88% |
| Don't Look Up |
| 1.55% |
Cinematography
| Dune |
| 56.22% |
| The Power of the Dog |
| 34.56% |
| West Side Story |
| 5.53% |
| The Tragedy of Macbeth |
| 2.76% |
| Nightmare Alley |
| 0.92% |
Visual Effects
| Dune |
| 83.41% |
| Spider-Man: No Way Home |
| 5.69% |
| Free Guy |
| 5.21% |
| Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings |
| 2.84% |
| No Time To Die |
| 2.84% |
Costume Design
| Cruella |
| 82.35% |
| Dune |
| 14.22% |
| West Side Story |
| 2.45% |
| Nightmare Alley |
| 0.49% |
| Cyrano |
| 0.49% |
Sound
| Dune |
| 81.31% |
| West Side Story |
| 9.60% |
| No Time To Die |
| 8.08% |
| The Power of the Dog |
| 1.01% |
| Belfast |
| 0.00% |
Music-Original Song
| No Time To Die |
| 60.76% |
| Dos Oruguitas |
| 32.91% |
| Be Alive |
| 4.64% |
| Down to Joy |
| 0.84% |
| Somehow You Do |
| 0.84% |
Music-Original Score
| Dune |
| 76.04% |
| The Power of the Dog |
| 16.13% |
| Encanto |
| 5.99% |
| Don’t Look Up |
| 0.92% |
| Parallel Mothers |
| 0.92% |
Makeup and Hairstyling
| The Eyes of Tammy Faye |
| 78.42% |
| Cruella |
| 9.47% |
| Dune |
| 9.47% |
| House of Gucci |
| 1.58% |
| Coming 2 America |
| 1.05% |
Short Film-Live Action
| The Long Goodbye |
| 63.33% |
| Please Hold |
| 16.11% |
| Ala Kachuu: Take and Run |
| 11.67% |
| On My Mind |
| 5.56% |
| The Dress |
| 3.33% |
Short Film-Animated
| Robin Robin |
| 75.00% |
| The Windshield Wiper |
| 11.05% |
| Bestia |
| 5.81% |
| Boxballet |
| 5.23% |
| Affairs of the Art |
| 2.91% |
Documentary Short Subject
| The Queen of Basketball |
| 49.42% |
| Audible |
| 37.79% |
| Lead Me Home |
| 7.56% |
| Three Songs for Benazir |
| 4.65% |
| When We Were Bullies |
| 0.58% |
